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Author Topic: Democrat Debate #1 and #2 Match rating
northwest territories
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*
Tom Ryan-googly eyed, weird, same Democrat slogans from the 90s. Hang it up, Bro

Amy Globuchar- was she on drugs? Cold, odd, a candidate who does well on PBS local level debates
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* 1/2

Tulsi Gabbard. Biggest disappointment. We get it you served in the military. We were only reminded several times. Very robotic. Who did the makeup?

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**

John Delaney. Very earnest, likable, but is bragging about being a business owner a way to appeal to voters seeking an alternative to the one in office?
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** 1/2

Bill DeBlasio. Who knew he was in the race? Threw in a few haymakers, but too left and is the Mayor of a city that is the ultimate Conservative dystopia.

Jay Inslee. Great liberal talking points coming from my high school football coach. He's the guy most likely to punch Trump in the face during a debate however.

Corey Booker. Eloquent and spoke Spanish for an extra half star even though Beto beat him to it. Maybe too much crazy eyes. His "I live in a ghetto" story will appeal to many Democrat voters, but repeating it over and over will ring dull with many white blue collar union workers.
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***

Beto O'Rourke. The height is a big advantage. Barack Lite and he pulls it off well. You can see Corey Booker was pissed when he pulled the Spanish language card first. But he was able to spar with Julian Castro. Question I am leaving with, is this a Orator or Administrator?
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****
Elizabeth Warren- didn't back down from her socialist agenda and war on corporations and the rich. Avoided conflicts and was calm and eloquent and professorial. Agree or not with all of her policies, she walked away unscathed with you knowing she was committed with what she said.
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*****
Julian Castro. Experiential and education wise the best candidate on paper, Castro not only hit the liberal hot buttons (ERA, LGBTQ) he had the balls to engage O'Rourke, and undermine his "pandering" by being a legit Latino who pronounced Latino names 100% correct and came up with a fascinating solution to the migrant crisis, a "Marshall Plan" for Central America.

I have to confess, going in I felt like Castro was the best candidate on paper, I had no idea he would be this slick in a debate!

[ 06-27-2019, 10:34 PM: Message edited by: northwest territories ]

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Crimson Mask from FL
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quote:
Originally posted by northwest territories:

Jay Inslee. He's the guy most likely to punch Trump in the face during a debate.

F*ck the primaries. Give him the nomination right now.

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Bcleah
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quote:
Originally posted by Crimson Mask from FL:
quote:
Originally posted by northwest territories:

Jay Inslee. He's the guy most likely to punch Trump in the face during a debate.

F*ck the primaries. Give him the nomination right now.
And tell him Trump said he hasn't got the balls to do it!

[ 06-27-2019, 04:04 AM: Message edited by: Bcleah ]

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Travlr
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General over-nights suggest that
- Warren proved why her numbers are climbing
- Castro exceed expectations
- Booker surprised those who haven't been paying attention
- Gabbard, Ryan and Delaney will be gone soon; maybe real soon
- de Blasio did better than expected, but he has a really long slog ahead of him...but he won't give up just yet
- Klobuchar, Beto and Inslee committed the cardinal sin of not being terrible, but merely forgettable
- the format sucked and the moderators need to go and learn how to moderate

I doubt we'll see much movement in anyone's numbers, even after tonight's Round 2. The post-debate(s) spin will be interesting to watch, though: I agree with Nate Silver when he said "this is also the sort of debate where the post-debate narrative (i.e. the spin) could shape perceptions quite a bit and matter more than the debate itself."

[ 06-27-2019, 10:26 AM: Message edited by: Travlr ]

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The Traveller
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Travlr
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POLITICO's takeaway: "Beto gets beat up, Castro and Booker shine, and Warren takes care of business."

Their "7 Points":
- Castro shows some fire, and Beto gets lit up
- Tactical or not, speaking Spanish is a big deal
- Warren takes care of business, with an asterisk
- Booker shines
- Klobuchar comes prepared — and disrupts a mansplainer
- Climate change is getting its airing - kind of
- Biden and Trump are forgotten or ignored

Again, it will be interesting to see if any of those aspects get played again tonight. Except that last one: Biden's on-stage and Trump has been his primary target, just as he's started to become the other candidate's *ahem* primary target....

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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K. Fabian McClinch
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Not to nitpick, but Warren does NOT have a "socialist agenda" (neither, actually, does Bernie, but he is somewhat to the left of Liz). She is a standard-issue Keynesian capitalist, advocating public-sector intervention to save capitalism from itself. Probably the closest, at least right now, to inheriting the mantle of FDR.

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1000 Masks But No Jobs
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I am surprised some of the previous posters thought Beto was middling or forgettable. A lot of the analysis I read said he got abused or was the worst performer on stage,

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Bcleah
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quote:
Originally posted by K. Fabian McClinch:
Not to nitpick, but Warren does NOT have a "socialist agenda" (neither, actually, does Bernie, but he is somewhat to the left of Liz). She is a standard-issue Keynesian capitalist, advocating public-sector intervention to save capitalism from itself. Probably the closest, at least right now, to inheriting the mantle of FDR.

Yes, if British, she possibly could have been the face of the moderate Tories in our battle for Prime Minister. She is certainly no socialist in the traditional/Marxist sense.

[ 06-27-2019, 12:11 PM: Message edited by: Bcleah ]

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Travlr
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quote:
Originally posted by 1000 Masks But No Jobs:
I am surprised some of the previous posters thought Beto was middling or forgettable. A lot of the analysis I read said he got abused or was the worst performer on stage,

That was less the posters and more the views of "The Pros From Dover" and the "Usual Suspects"

No matter how you want to slice it, Beto had a....less-than-fulfilling night.

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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northwest territories
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DEBATE 2 RATINGS

Last nights debate was better:

MARIANNE WILLIAMSON * 1/2-Not sure what planet she came from but be honest she was entertaining. Love will solve all!

ANDREW YANG * 1/2 Had some interesting ideas, but I think he only spoke twice the entire debate. Dude, you gotta fight harder for speaking time.

MICHAEL BENET * 1/2 Zzzzzzzzzz. Who???
---------------------------------

KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND ** Tried hard, and had good speaking points, but her words went in one ear and out the other. I hate to say this but it might be because she is just too hot.

ERIC SWALWELL ** Enjoyed his pot shot at Joe Biden. Very passionate and gets a 1/2 star for hair.

JOHN HICKENLOOPER ** Only candidate to say he is not in favor of socialism, and sold his business background plus progressive background well. If you were a Republican and were forced to vote for one candidate, its him. One star off for a toupee. We've had enough Presidents with questionable hair.

--------------------------------------

MAYOR PETE *** I guess I was expecting more. He seemed to have few answers and was apologetic for the recent South Bend police shooting. He and Beto are the biggest disappointments of the debates.

BERNIE SANDERS *** My anti-socialist bias affects the rating, but I have to hand it to the guy he does not back down. The promise to raise middle class taxes to fund universal health care will doom him.
------------------------------------

KAMALA HARRIS ***1/2 I know the Right is crowing over this but her attack on the only vice-President to a black President for opposing busing fell flat and he deflected it well. Points on for saying what she would do as President----assume the role!

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JOE BIDEN **** Lets be honest, he was the VP for Obama and its hard to kill the guy who was the sidekick of the current Lord of the Democrat and Progressive movement. He was slick, sounded good, looked good, and deflected well. This was Uncle Joe's debate to lose, and he managed to not do that.

OVERALL:
WINNER DEBATE ONE: Julian Castro
WINNER DEBATE TWO: Joe Biden
OVERALL WINNER: Julian Castro
DARKHORSE DEBATE ONE: Julian Castro
DARKHORSE DEBATE TWO: Eric Swalwell
OVERALL DARKHORSE: Julian Castro
BIGGEST LOSER DEBATE ONE: Tom Ryan
BIGGEST LOSER DEBATE TWO: Marianne Williamson
OVERALL LOSER: Tom Ryan
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT DEBATE ONE: Beto O'Rourke
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT DEBATE TWO: Mayor Pete
OVERALL BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Beto O'Rourke
BEST MOMENT, DEBATE ONE: O'Rourke v Castro
BEST MOMENT DEBATE TWO: Swalwwell v Biden
BEST MOMENT OVERALL: O'Rourke v Castro

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Travlr
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Interesting picks.

Taegan Goddard of PoliticalWire.com offered up his own thoughts (behind the pay-wall) which suggests some different observations.

He figures only Harris and Buttigieg improved their position tonight; Biden and Bernie underperformed, but he notes specifically that B&B "weren’t terrible, but they likely lost ground tonight."

I quote him verbatim for the rest:
quote:
The remaining six candidates were incredibly weak. None were close to being presidential. They were a combination of unlikeable (Kirsten Gillibrand, Eric Swalwell), not prepared (John Hickenlooper, Michael Bennet), lacking in stature (Andrew Yang) and just plain weird (Marianne Williamson). That may not be entirely fair, but they did not belong on the stage.
I imagine the over-nights from the "The Pros" and "The Suspects" will be an interesting stew of observations, and how the spin will play out over the next couple of days for Monday's polls will also be informative.

The general impression I'm getting right now from "The Pros From Dover" (or at least those that have piped in so far) is that Warren and Harris won their nights, and Castro and Buttigieg upped their game.

What "The Usual Suspects" will have to say -- and spin -- will definitely be educational in how it will compare to that....

[ 06-27-2019, 11:15 PM: Message edited by: Travlr ]

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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northwest territories
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I hope everyone likes this: I power ranked the Dem candidates using a SUM of 0-5 ratings based on:

Debate Skills
Name Recognition
Ability to Beat Trump
Experience

I also took deducts because of age (Biden and Sanders took a 1 point hit), and other miscellaneous factors (Hate to say this, but I deducted 2 points from Mayor Pete because he is gay. I don't have a problem with it, but I'm looking at this from an elect-ready standard, and we have a lot of bigots voting )

BIDEN 17
CASTRO 16
SANDERS 15
WARREN 15
HARRIS 13
BOOKER 13
OROURKE 13
BUTTIGEIG 11
INSLEE 10
HICKENLOOPER 9
GILLIBRAND 9
DEBLASIO 8
GLOBUCHAR 8
GABBARD 7
DELANEY 7
SMALWELL 6
BENET 5
YANG 4
RYAN 3
WILLIAMSON 1

What surprised me most from my amateur analysis is that I think Julian Castro did himself well from the debates; conversely despite what the media says, I think Beto O'Rourke will rebound and learn from a mediocre performance.

Inslee might appeal to the "little league coach crowd" meanwhile Mayor Pete has to work a little harder.

I still think its Joe Bidens race to lose, with Libby Warren and Bernie Sanders on his heels. But who knows?

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diamondmd
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I think both debates were totally useless. From the sports theme at the beginning to only giving a candidate 60 seconds to answer complex questions, it's taken on the look and feel of a game show. Which works only if you want to have a game show host as president, our current fvcked up situataion.

As much as I hate the whole hate the media bullsh!t, in this case it fits. The media looks at the election of our government as a sportint event and trreat it as such. That is why we are in the fix we are in and will continue to be so until everyone starts taking it seriously.

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Travlr
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As expected, the over-nights are proving to be interesting.

DanBalz at the WaPo, and John Harris and Elena Schneider, both writing for POLITICO, are saying it was Harris who came away the best from last night.

Mark Lukasiewicz at CNN put it far more succinctly (now being quoted around the 'Net as "Last Night’s Debate In 14 Words": "Eric Swalwell asked Joe Biden to pass the torch. Kamala Harris just took it."


I tend to think of Walter Shapiro as a hack (part of the "Suspects", not "The Pros"), but I think his view of Biden being bruised but still standing is the correct one to make. In the spin room after the debates, three of Biden's top aides spent a half-hour insisted that performed well, made his case, and acknowledged no mistakes. The Hill, however, suggests that all is not happy in Biden-land, with reports that some staffers are "freaking out" -- a claim quickly dismissed by the campaign -- by Biden's underwhelming performance.


The other big part of Debate2 was Buttigieg addressing the police shooting in his city which has dogged his campaign this last week. When asked by Rachel Maddow why he hasn't increased the number of black policemen on his force, he replied
quote:
Because I couldn’t get it done. My community is in anguish right now because of an officer-involved shooting, a black man, Eric Logan, killed by a white officer. And I’m not allowed to take sides until the investigation comes back. The officer said he was attacked with a knife, but he didn’t have his body camera on. It’s a mess. And we’re hurting.
The Playbook offers up the view that we saw "a politician taking responsibility for a shortcoming. We don’t see that much." And the LA Times suggested that "The response won’t defuse tensions. But he may get credit for not dissembling or trying to palm the blame off on others."


Night One's viewership was around 15 million viewers on NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo, but that doesn't include the streaming viewership on YouTube, Twitter and other sites. Night Two's numbers should be out shortly, and are expected to be a bit better since both Biden and Bernie were on.

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Travlr
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Amy Waters at the Cook Political Report:
quote:
Yes, 25 candidates are running for the nomination. But, only five to six of them are serious contenders for the nomination. The RealClearPolitics average shows that five candidates combined—Vice President Joe Biden, Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg—take between 71 percent to 76 percent of the vote in national and early state polling. Nothing that happened in these two debates changed that math.

Senator Cory Booker and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro performed well in their Wednesday night debate. But, strong enough to break into the double digits—or overcome any of those five? I don’t see it.



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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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ltp711
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Biden was horrible last night and I’m not sure what debate people who think he did ok watched, he blabbed about “States Rights” like it was a debate in 1859 not 2019! Bernie was pretty bad too all he did was shout his campaign applause lines or claim “Medicare for all” will solve every problem. Harris kicked ass and took names, Mayor Pete did pretty good and I can see Swalwell being a VP choice.
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Daddy Dewdrop
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quote:
Originally posted by northwest territories:
GLOBUCHAR 8

Would take your rankings more seriously if you at least spelled Klobuchar correctly.
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Dragonstone
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The biggest winners of each of the two nights were Warren and Harris. Personally, I would have absolutely no problem with both of those women being on the same ticket. For 230 years, we've had two men on the ticket, and it's never once been a problem - why would having two women on the ticket be a problem?

That said... I don't think enough of the country has evolved sufficiently to be able to accept that proposition yet, so I would say at least one of them should be on the ticket (preferably at the top), but not both. There will probably need to be at least one XY American on the ticket for America to not have a collective meltdown over it.

I do think that regardless of who wins the nomination, the odds of the ticket being two white guys are probably pretty close to zero - every one of the white guys running has more or less acknowledged that their running mate should be somebody who doesn't look like them.

[ 06-28-2019, 12:10 PM: Message edited by: Dragonstone ]

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diamondmd
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Hate to disagree but if Biden is the nominee he will pick a centrist establishment white guy as his running mate. Then wonder why everyone is making a big deal over it and lose.
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PsychoSem
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quote:
Originally posted by diamondmd:
Hate to disagree but if Biden is the nominee he will pick a centrist establishment white guy as his running mate. Then wonder why everyone is making a big deal over it and lose.

Like him or not, Biden honestly might be the only one out of this group that defeats Trump. Most of these candidates are way too far left of the base. That will show once we are down to one.

Right now Biden just has to stay out of his own way and he should be able to coast while everyone else beats each other up and takes each other out.

It's debatable if he is going to even be able to do that though. Harris was the clear winner in the exchange between the two of them that was pretty much the highlight of these debates.

When the field starts to narrow then we should know more. If Biden is still polling mid 30's then he's probably getting the nom. If he's in the mid 20's there's a shot for someone else.

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Dragonstone
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If Biden is the nominee, he probably has to pick Kamala Harris as his running mate if he wants to win.
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K. Fabian McClinch
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quote:
Originally posted by diamondmd:
Hate to disagree but if Biden is the nominee he will pick a centrist establishment white guy as his running mate. Then wonder why everyone is making a big deal over it and lose.

Harris is a centrist Black woman -- and, to the extent that being a former state prosecutor counts as "establishment," she's that, too.

(In fact, it's conceivable that her less-than-progressive track record on some issues as state prosecutor could lose a Biden-Harris team more votes among progressives than it would gain them among "moderates" -- especially if someone decides to pull a "Nader in 2000" and run as a progressive third-party candidate in protest.)

[ 06-28-2019, 04:32 PM: Message edited by: K. Fabian McClinch ]

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PsychoSem
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quote:
Originally posted by K. Fabian McClinch:
quote:
Originally posted by diamondmd:
Hate to disagree but if Biden is the nominee he will pick a centrist establishment white guy as his running mate. Then wonder why everyone is making a big deal over it and lose.

Harris is a centrist Black woman -- and, to the extent that being a former state prosecutor counts as "establishment," she's that, too.

(In fact, it's conceivable that her less-than-progressive track record on some issues as state prosecutor could lose a Biden-Harris team more votes among progressives than it would gain them among "moderates" -- especially if someone decides to pull a "Nader in 2000" and run as a progressive third-party candidate in protest.)

Who do you think might run as a 3rd party? I am assuming no major bids from a 3rd party at this time but it's early yet.

The base seems way more moderate some of the ideas being put out so how much do you think losing progressive votes would actually hurt a ticket like that in the end?

[ 06-28-2019, 04:54 PM: Message edited by: PsychoSem ]

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Travlr
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quote:
Originally posted by PsychoSem:
The base seems way more moderate some of the ideas being put out so how much do you think losing progressive votes would actually hurt a ticket like that in the end?

The Progressive wing of the Democratic Party is somewhere between 20%-25% of its membership; if they decided to stay home because of Biden taking the ticket and putting, say, Booker or O'Rourke as his Veep instead of Warren or Harris or Bernie or whichever darling of the Far Left they decide upon as being their saviour....you're looking at a possible drop of 3%-5% in total voters.

And that's the sort of margin that makes or breaks an election.

In this case, possibly giving it to Trump. On a silver platter.

[ 06-28-2019, 05:40 PM: Message edited by: Travlr ]

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Travlr
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CNN reports an estimated 17 million watched Debate2. The final numbers won't be in until later tonight, but initial reports say there was an increase of 15%-20% in households watching. Not bad for a somewhat slap-dash set-up.

But it may also have worked to its purpose.

((Standard Proviso follows: "It's just ONE poll". )) The Morning Consult/FiveThirtyEight survey asked viewers their opinions before and after the two debates. The findings seem to support the Conventional Wisdom as the punditry and PoliWatchers have been putting forward this last 24-48 hours. Check the following graph:
 -

Basic idea: If the name is above the line, they gained support; those below the line lost some.

Again: It's just one poll. But polls we should see on Monday and Tuesday should give us a better picture of any possible trend starting (whether any trend will hold, of course, is another matter entirely).

That being said, it really looks like nobody likes de Blasio....


Ezra Klein at VOX.com suggests that Harris may be becoming "the consensus candidate":
quote:
Sen. Kamala Harris is the closest Democrats have to a potential consensus candidate. She doesn’t suffer from the enmity that Hillary Clinton voters have for Sen. Bernie Sanders, or that leftists hold for former Vice President Joe Biden, or that the Obama administration has for Elizabeth Warren.

She’s not another white guy running to represent a diverse party. She’s got enough political experience to be a credible candidate, but not so much that she’s been on the wrong side of dozens of controversial issues.

Jonathan Chait at the NYMag's Intelligencer PoliBlog mostly concurs, saying that he thinks she is about to be propelled into the top tier of the candidates.


Frank Bruni at teh NYT was watching Twitter to gauge some attitudes and thoughts. He came away with the impression that a lot of people were envisioning a Harris/Buttigieg ticket....


And in a side-bar note to the Democratic Primary story, the debates (according to POLITICO) appear to have sparked a surge of fundraising. Especially for the Dem's ActBlue, who claim to have received raised $6.9 million on Thursday alone.

This comes on the heels of Biden losing one of his top fundraisers.


I think, with the first debates over, we are now past the Introduction, and have begun the First Act of the Election Season. Act Two will begin with the Primaries and Caucuses starting, and the Thrid Act, of course, will be after the Conventions and the "real" campaigns begin.

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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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1000 Masks But No Jobs
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quote:
Originally posted by diamondmd:
Hate to disagree but if Biden is the nominee he will pick a centrist establishment white guy as his running mate. Then wonder why everyone is making a big deal over it and lose.

I think the chance is close to zero that the ticket will be two white men. The Dems have not run a ticket of two white men since 2004.

[ 06-28-2019, 06:54 PM: Message edited by: 1000 Masks But No Jobs ]

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Dragonstone
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Joy Reid said on Bill Maher tonight that the biggest mistake the Democrats made in the debates this week was behaving as if they were all competing for the opportunity to take on Jeb Bush in the general election, and not the incompetent malevolent monster living in the White House who presents an actual literal existential threat to the survival of the Republic.

Too focused on nitpicking each other and not nearly focused enough on the necessity for this to be a unified mission with a singular shared goal that (no pun intended) trumps all else - making Donald Trump a one-term president.

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Claymation Quartermain
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quote:
Originally posted by Dragonstone:
Joy Reid said on Bill Maher tonight that the biggest mistake the Democrats made in the debates this week was behaving as if they were all competing for the opportunity to take on Jeb Bush in the general election, and not the incompetent malevolent monster living in the White House who presents an actual literal existential threat to the survival of the Republic.

Too focused on nitpicking each other and not nearly focused enough on the necessity for this to be a unified mission with a singular shared goal that (no pun intended) trumps all else - making Donald Trump a one-term president.

Sounds about right.

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Dirko
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My personal favourites are be Warren, Harris and Buttigieg, but Buttigieg is unelectable at this moment in time.

Warren, for me, has this IT-factor, in that I trust her. Same for Buttigieg. Harris has good ideas and comes across as very competent, but seems a bit too driven (which I accept is nothing negative at all, as you would not become a senator or presidential candidate if you weren't).

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1000 Masks But No Jobs
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quote:
Originally posted by Dragonstone:
Joy Reid said on Bill Maher tonight that the biggest mistake the Democrats made in the debates this week was behaving as if they were all competing for the opportunity to take on Jeb Bush in the general election, and not the incompetent malevolent monster living in the White House who presents an actual literal existential threat to the survival of the Republic.

Too focused on nitpicking each other and not nearly focused enough on the necessity for this to be a unified mission with a singular shared goal that (no pun intended) trumps all else - making Donald Trump a one-term president.

The problem there is that candidates polling at one or two or five percent have to "nitpick" the frontunners or their campaign will be over very soon.

It seems almost impossible for the Democrats to screw up 2020, but one of the ways they could do that is by trying to "out-left" each other. That every single candidate raised their hand on Thursday night on the question of giving healthcare to people in the country illegally and other frontunners like Harris and Warren have been receptive to ending private health insurance could be very dicey in the general election.

[ 06-30-2019, 07:05 AM: Message edited by: 1000 Masks But No Jobs ]

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K. Fabian McClinch
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quote:
Originally posted by 1000 Masks But No Jobs:
It seems almost impossible for the Democrats to screw up 2020, but one of the ways they could do is by trying to "out-left" each other. . . very dicey in the general election.

. . . Pair this with Trav's observation above, and we see the conundrum: Fail to "out-left" one another, and you risk losing that 3 - 5% of your voting base, who'll either stay home or cast a "protest" vote (write-in, 3rd party, whatever). But if you DO try to "out-Left" one another, you risk losing whatever the percentage it is that identifies itself as "moderate," who'll probably just stay home (or, I suppose, vote for an as-yet undreamed of "moderate" Republican who arises as a "protest" vote from the other side of the aisle).

I fear that this election might well be decided by the folks who DON'T vote, rather than the ones who do.

[ 06-29-2019, 04:18 PM: Message edited by: K. Fabian McClinch ]

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Travlr
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quote:
Originally posted by K. Fabian McClinch:
quote:
Originally posted by 1000 Masks But No Jobs:
It seems almost impossible for the Democrats to screw up 2020, but one of the ways they could do is by trying to "out-left" each other. . . very dicey in the general election.

. . . Pair this with Trav's observation above, and we see the conundrum: Fail to "out-left" one another, and you risk losing that 3 - 5% of your voting base, who'll either stay home or cast a "protest" vote (write-in, 3rd party, whatever). But if you DO try to "out-Left" one another, you risk losing whatever the percentage it is that identifies itself as "moderate," who'll probably just stay home (or, I suppose, vote for an as-yet undreamed of "moderate" Republican who arises as a "protest" vote from the other side of the aisle).

I fear that this election might well be decided by the folks who DON'T vote, rather than the ones who do.

The numbers are about the same for the Moderate/Centrist wing of the Democratic Party. But don't equate that with, say, the Establishment faction: The Establishment faction has its feet in both the Progressive and Centrist camps, but is also sort of separate from them (see my thread about the Six Dem Factions from a month or two back).

But yeah, go too far Left, and the Center stays home. And again, it's that 3%-5% that could change the election. Remember, folks, Hillary won the popular vote by a titch over 2%. And again, it isn't JUST the numbers....but also where those numbers are. Wanna make the Centrists in Minnesota and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania go elsewhere? That's where a lot of Obama voters decided to vote for Trump instead in 2016, right?

The Dems have a much narrower tightrope to walk than a lot of folks on either end of the Democratic Party base really comprehend.....

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Travlr
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quote:
Originally posted by 1000 Masks But No Jobs:
That every single candidate raised their hand on Thursday night on the question of giving healthcare to people in the country illegally and other frontunners like Harris and Warren have been receptive to ending private health insurance could be very dicey in the general election.

Harris recanted that position the next morning on Morning Joe

Apparently, she misunderstood/misheard the question....

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1000 Masks But No Jobs
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quote:
Originally posted by Travlr:
quote:
Originally posted by 1000 Masks But No Jobs:
That every single candidate raised their hand on Thursday night on the question of giving healthcare to people in the country illegally and other frontunners like Harris and Warren have been receptive to ending private health insurance could be very dicey in the general election.

Harris recanted that position the next morning on Morning Joe

Apparently, she misunderstood/misheard the question....

I was watching Morning Joe when she walked back that hand raise, but that is the same thing she did at the CNN town hall -- state one thing, then back away from her position.

Harris is a sponsor of the Sanders M4A bill that would all but eliminate private insurance.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/6/27/18919494/democratic-debate-2019-kamala-harris-healthcare-policy

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K. Fabian McClinch
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Hope this isn't a topic jump -- but why are commentators insisting that "Medicare for All" would eliminate private insurance? Medicare, as it stands, is NOT sufficient to cover all health care needs. There are plenty of "gaps," which are filled in (if the person can afford it) by private "Medigap" plans. (And even then, expensive procedures like many surgeries, home care, long-term care, etc. are not entirely covered -- lotta folks on Medicare with cancer and other expensive-to-treat conditions, or who require assisted living or long-term care as they grow older, still end up going into bankruptcy). If Sanders is proposing a "universal" plan that would eliminate private insurance, then "Medicare for All" is not the appropriate term.

Dirty little secret: Most nursing home care is paid for by Medicaid, not Medicare (Medicare covers some skilled nursing facility care up to 100 days per benefit period. After that, Medicaid takes over.) And Medicaid is one of those so-called "entitlement" programs that the right is chompin' at the bit to cut, and which even the allegedly "socialist" Dems don't seem to have the cojones (or whatever the non-gendered term is) to stand up for. (I don't hear them talking about General Assistance --"Welfare"-- or SNAP/food stamps either.)

[ 06-30-2019, 07:46 AM: Message edited by: K. Fabian McClinch ]

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Shaving Weezie Jefferson
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Brief notes after watching both debates and reading this thread:

- The herd needs to thin quickly. This is a *cluster*****.

- Gillibrand isn't *that* hot.

- Tulsi comes across *way* better in interviews and speeches.

- Yang intrigues me. I like that he offered us a bribe right out of the gate.

- Bernie & Biden would be hilarious heckling a Trump Muppet from a balcony.

- Kamala's the most charismatic of the bunch.

- Kamala staggered Uncle Joe with the busing line. Standing 8 count. Made him move really slow at the Junction.

- Swalwell is the obnoxious best friend of Patrick Dempsey in every romcom. He was shocked to learn his "Breaking up with Russia, Making up with NATO" catchphrase didn't turn out to be the new "Feeling cute, might delete later." Thinks he's funny. He's not funny. His digs at Biden came across as punkish and ageist.

- Bennett looks and sounds like an all growed up version of Warren from Empire Records

- Mayor Pete's suggestion that private insurance and Medicare-for-all could coexist reminds me of the origins of tipping. We'd all have a "right" to medical services but the best tippers would ultimately get the best medical services. There would still be inequality (read that: substandard care for the poor). OJ didn't get off because he had a public defender.

- The idea that voting for a centrist is the best way to a) beat Trump, and b) deal with Mitch McTurtleface is laughably flawed logic. You don't center a capsizing boat by rushing to the middle, you center it by rushing to the other side. We need true checks and balances, not a Democratic Party that's GOP-Lite.

- Bernie's still my guy but I want *everyone* to impress me. I'm wide open to the cream rising to the top. Anybody but Trump but I want someone who is GREAT to beat Trump.

[ 06-30-2019, 10:15 AM: Message edited by: Shaving Weezie Jefferson ]

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Red Cloak
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I’m for Gabbard.

Bernie or Castro would be good too.

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Dragonstone
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Gabbard is literally the one candidate who has absolutely no shot in hell because not a single member of the progressive wing of the party would ever support her.
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Travlr
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quote:
Originally posted by Dragonstone:
Gabbard is literally the one candidate who has absolutely no shot in hell because not a single member of the progressive wing of the party would ever support her.

A fair amount of the Centrist wing wouldn't, either, actually.

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Travlr
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Expecting a couple more polls to be released tonight and tomorrow, but the first one by CNN has some interesting numbers.

Biden got 22%, followed by Harris at 17%, then Elizabeth Warren (15%), and Bernie (14%). No one else cracked 5%.

That's a 10-point decline for Biden since May, while Harris saw a bump of 9-points, and Warren a bump of 8-points.

Even without the poll's release, earlier this morning, POLITICO wrote that the inevitability of Biden was over.
quote:
For months, the Democratic presidential primary has been dictated by Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. That primary is now over.

After an eventful month and the conclusion of the first round of Democratic debates, there is a new top tier — and a sense among many campaigns and Democratic operatives that Biden and Sanders are suddenly within reach in a race that has broken wide open.

Wrap that around a HuffPo/YouGov poll that said that of the Democratic voters who watched at least highlights of the first night’s debate, 59% said Warren did the best, with Castro a distant second at 16%. Everyone else was in the single digits.

Night Two saw another 59% saying Harris did the best, Biden with 16%, and 11% naming Bernie as the winner. Everyone else polled below 10%.

So, yeah, I think the race just got blown open. And a good chunk of the lower end are probably wising up to the fact that they aren't going to go anywhere. Of the 23 running, maybe 8 are really in the game and could go all the way.

[ 07-01-2019, 02:21 PM: Message edited by: Travlr ]

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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