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Author Topic: Election Day Thread, 2018
Daddy Dewdrop
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quote:
Originally posted by Cory:
Walker concedes in Wisconsin

And there will be no recount, thanks to a law he pushed for after the 2016 election:

https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-news/scott-walker-concedes-defeat-in-wisconsin

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Travlr
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Ballot Initiatives. Oh my, yes, we have ballot initiatives.....

Washington's Measure 1631, the Carbon Emissions Fee Measure, lost. Not too surprising, even though it had big support in King County (57%). But the oil companies poured $$$ into the State to fight it, and the rural counties killed it. This is the second try in WA, and the organizers of this Measure say they'll be back in 2020.

Florida’s constitutional amendment restoring voting rights to many felons got tons of attention -- and a big majority vote, 63%, well over the necessary threshold.

That wasn't the only "easier to vote" proposals that won last night:
- Automatic voter registration passed in Nevada and Michigan, when you renew your DL;
- Michigan and Maryland voters approved same-day registration
- Michigan also maked it easier to request absentee ballots, and reinstated the straight-ticket voting option.

Two Voter ID measures did well: Both North Carolina and Arkansas passed measures that will require voters to show some form of photo ID when they cast ballots in person. The NC legislature will be deciding what photo IDs will be acceptable, and I expect the list to be fairly reasonable after the last effort there got killed by the Courts as racially discriminatory.

Criminal justice reform advocates won a string of other victories last night, above and beyond Florida's big change:
- Louisiana voted “yes” on an amendment to end a Jim Crow law that allowed non-unanimous juries in felony trials.
- Washington state passed an initiative that could make it easier to prosecute police for negligent shootings.
- Oregon voters rejected an effort to repeal the state’s sanctuary law.
- Colorado voted to remove language in the state constitution that allows prison labor without pay.

"Marsy’s Law" (known to some as the "crime victims' bill of rights" snagged victories in all six states where it was on the ballot (Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Nevada, North Carolina, and Oklahoma).

Medicaid Expansion was popular almost everywhere it was on the ballot. Idaho and Nebraska passed theirs' and Utah's is expected to pass once all the votes are counted. Montana's, though, came up against Big Tobacco (the measure was to be paid for by a tax on tobacco), who spent over $17 million to ensure its defeat....and it was.


Lots of others dealing with marijuana (medical or otherwise), Gender and LGBT issues, abortion and other stuff. CNN has a complete list that you can peruse at your leisure.....

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Travlr
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quote:
Originally posted by Daddy Dewdrop:
quote:
Originally posted by Cory:
Walker concedes in Wisconsin

And there will be no recount, thanks to a law he pushed for after the 2016 election:

https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-news/scott-walker-concedes-defeat-in-wisconsin

To quote a Texas pal o' mine: "Bless his heart...."

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The Traveller
a fan since '68....

"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Billy Burgess
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I'm very happy that Oregon voters rejected a ballot measure that would have repealed limitations on immigration enforcement. This effectively keeps Oregon's status as a "sanctuary state" in place.

I'd like to think of it as a bit of a repudiation of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. ICE seriously needs to rethink and retool its jackbooted thuggery or be abolished. Glad Oregon is willing to stand up to them.

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Travlr
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Some other outcomes of Tuesday's elections.

First, there were 108 women elected to Congress; 96 in the House and 12 in the Senate. Along with the 10 women Senators that weren't up for re-election this year, that will make 118 women in Congress overall. And the majority of those elected are Democrats (not surprising given the outcomes of the House races).

But it gets wilder: Nevada elected 22 women to their legislative Assembly, which will become the first female majority chamber in the State (and possibly the nation?). Yeah, more women than men serving. And Nevada isn't a bright blue State, which is interesting, too.....


The Democrats are on track to win more than 35 seats in the House; this will better their 2006 results, and end up being the best they've done since the 1974 post-Watergate MidTerms.


If Kemp does win the Georgia Govenror's race, there will be 37 state-government trifectas (i.e., single party control of the governorship, state Senate and state House). Republicans will control 23 state governments, while Democrats will control 14. And an amazing stat from the National Conference of State Legislatures: Only one state legislature is split in control between Democrats and Republicans (i.e., one party holds the Senate, the other party holds the House) — Minnesota. It’s the first time that’s happened since 1914.


If you were one of the authors of the GOP Tax Plan, chances are you won't be returning to D.C. in January. Four Republican members of the Ways and Means Committee who all touted the law they helped draft on the campaign trail lost their seats.



We'll see about a little more incisive analysis later on; still churning through a lot of data, and of course, the big question -- turnout -- won't be known for sure for a week or two year (thanks to all those mailed ballots). It certainly was bigger than "normal", but how big.....?

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The Traveller
a fan since '68....

"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Cory
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Kemp has decided to step down as Secretary of State. Of course, that was heading to court and we all know how well he does there.
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Crimson Mask from FL
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Whoa UP. The Florida Governor’s Race Is Probably Headed for a Recount

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So long from the Sunshine State!

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Travlr
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quote:
Originally posted by Crimson Mask from FL:
Whoa UP. The Florida Governor’s Race Is Probably Headed for a Recount

Was wondering if that might happen; DeSantis' margin was slowly shrinking....

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The Traveller
a fan since '68....

"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Travlr
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Here's an interesting thing: If you take the popular vote for the House races of this year's MidTerms and say "this is the starting point of the 2020 Presidential Elections", you end up with an interesting looking map:
 -

If it looks a little familiar, that's because, with the exception of Ohio being red, that's the 2012 Electoral College map. Now, the lighter colour shows the States where the margin was under 5-points, and that's kind of disquieting for both Parties, given the volatility of Florida, Arizona, Iowa and North Carolina this last two Presidential cycles.

Given the deep blue of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania -- the three States that put Trump in the White House -- if I were a GOP strategist, I'd be trying to figure out a way to make amends.... but I get the feeling that it will be difficult....

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The Traveller
a fan since '68....

"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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SHOOTER
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Well, the Republicans lost the House and I didn't read about any groups of conservatives protesting or rioting because of it. No one screamed at the sky either... Thankfully, we kept the more important Senate. Picked up a few seats too... Since the Dems control the House, it will be interesting and comical watching them try to do their thing. They'll try to bring down Trump. It will probably consume them and instead of worrying about the country it will cost them in 2020. They'll try to get their hands on more of our money, try to bring back the discrimination of Affirmative Action, try to destroy jobs by trying to over-regulate, try to do away with the US's sovereignty with an open door policy, try to give free health care to people no matter how long they've been here and no matter if they are legal or illegal, etc... It will be fun though watching Trump pick and the Senate confirm judges all over who will rule on the constitution... Here in Florida, the two big races for Governor and Senator went well. I have no doubt Rick Scott will prevail after the recount. I won't have to worry about a state income tax being implemented now and ICE will still be in business... Beto luck next time CM.
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Crimson Mask from FL
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quote:
Originally posted by Travlr:
Florida Senate Race Heading for Recount

quote:
Originally posted by Crimson Mask from FL:
Whoa UP. The Florida Governor’s Race Is Probably Headed for a Recount

Just can't quite get into the present no matter what, can ya, Beav.

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Crimson Mask from FL
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But you nail being a smarmy c*nt every time.

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Crimson Mask from FL
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Truth it's it's remarkable Gillum got this close, whether he ends up winning or not, given that most of the state is racist hillbillies like Beav. Better steal all you can while you can, clucks. Your days are numbered.

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Cory
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Trumpstain is already saying there is voter fraud in Florida. I am guessing his man is losing.
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Travlr
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Our Little Fascisti seems to forget that the House not only can subpoena both people and documents and Trump can't do very much about it, but.....welllll.....

The House also controls the purse strings. Trump will be lucky to get any coin for the self-promoting BS he's been trying to pull off. And he can forget any money for his fantasy-land wall.....

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The Traveller
a fan since '68....

"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Crimson Mask from FL
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in-alabama-fertilized-eggs-are-now-people

Well, at least it won't lower the mean IQ.

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Crimson Mask from FL
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quote:
Originally posted by Cory:
Trumpstain is already saying there is voter fraud in Florida. I am guessing his man is losing.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/11/marco-rubio-opposes-recount-in-florida-senate-race.html?utm_medium=s1&utm_campaign=nym&utm_source=fb&fbclid=IwAR3eUfRdncFhmAteI8z9-Z2tje O FQ18EBkusDIoG_5etOfk2GUfPkcr9_TI

[ 11-09-2018, 07:13 AM: Message edited by: Crimson Mask from FL ]

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Cory
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Yeah, I commented on that. Only the GOP assume counting every vote is fraud.
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Travlr
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I see that MN-01 has finally been called; it flipped to the GOP.

Likewise, WA-08 was called, flipping for the Dems, along with GA-06.

That's a 30-seat net flip for the Dems so far.

And still 9 seats to be called, most in California, but including UT-04, NM-02, NJ-03 and ME-02.

As noted, don't hold your breath for ME-02.


And I just noticed that SC-01 had flipped to the Democrats as well. Some surprising flips in States lots of people probably wouldn't have thought possible (Kansas, South Carolina, Oklahoma (!))....

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Travlr
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Axios reporting the Dems have 33 seats, and are posed to possibly win up to a total of 40.

I think that's pretty optimistic; I'd be surprised if they get over 36 total, but it's entirely possible to still happen....just not probable.



Then again, FiveThrityEight started Election Day with a D+38 forecast, and their numbers in specific races have been very very good this year. So......?

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The Traveller
a fan since '68....

"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Crimson Mask from FL
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An unfortunately plausible explanation of the 'undervoting' in Broward County in the Fl. Senate race.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/political-pulse/os-ne-broward-ballot-florida-senate-20181108-story.html

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Travlr
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The return of the butterfly ballots....?

Oy vey.....

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The Traveller
a fan since '68....

"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Crimson Mask from FL
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https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/11/09/after-scott-requested-investigation-law-enforcement-says-no-voter-fraud-allegations-found-690552

 -

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Travlr
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quote:
Originally posted by Crimson Mask from FL:
quote:
Originally posted by Travlr:
Florida Senate Race Heading for Recount

quote:
Originally posted by Crimson Mask from FL:
Whoa UP. The Florida Governor’s Race Is Probably Headed for a Recount

Just can't quite get into the present no matter what, can ya, Beav.

The only recount he probably approves of is the one for the Commissioner of Agriculture..... because the Democrat is leading in that one....

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Crimson Mask from FL
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 -

Now of course somebody at faux 'News' went 'EXPENSIVE SUIT! EXPENSIVE SHOES!' . And of course anybody hip enough to spot that is also hip enough to be familiar with the practice of 'wardrobe' on 'photo shoots'. Like, it's PROVIDED. Not the MODEL'S OWN. But of course all the hillbilly retards parroting it, THEY ain't hip enough.

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diamondmd
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quote:
Originally posted by Crimson Mask from FL:
 -

Now of course somebody at faux 'News' went 'EXPENSIVE SUIT! EXPENSIVE SHOES!' . And of course anybody hip enough to spot that is also hip enough to be familiar with the practice of 'wardrobe' on 'photo shoots'. Like, it's PROVIDED. Not the MODEL'S OWN. But of course all the hillbilly retards parroting it, THEY ain't hip enough.

I guess they've forgotten when Palin not only wore provided wardrobe, but tried to steal it.

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http://www.gccwhistory.com/

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jjenginer
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Heck this makes me support her even more because she’s like the majority of Americans, trying to pay bills
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Travlr
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Arizona's Senate race has apparently been all but called for Sinema, regardless of the cries of "fraud" and such coming from the White House: 1.5% ahead, or some 30,000 votes. And with most of the outstanding votes coming from Maricopa County -- where Sinema is ahead by some 45,000 votes -- it's hard to see McSally overcoming the margin this late into the counting.

Now it's all down to -- again -- Florida. And as the Tampa Bay Times notes, Nelson — and to a greater extent, Gillum — would need a systematic error to be discovered during their recounts if their results are to be reversed.

Hope springs eternal, I know, but a forelorn hope is a forelorn hope.....

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Travlr
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There are still a pile of House races still up in the air, but not all of them are waiting on the mail, as in California (which has 5 races still uncalled, the 10th, 39th, 45th, 48th and 49th).

The others, as of right now include
GA-07
ME-02
NJ-03
NM-02
NY-22
NY-27
TX-23
UT-04

If some of those make you think they were called earlier, that's because some were....and then the absentee/provisional ballots started getting counted, and candidates rescinded their concessions (not, as noted, that those actually have any legal standings). FiveThrityEight.com has a good run down on these races.

The Democrats are on track to gain a net 38-40 seats (up a bit from the 36-38 seats of a couple of days back). It's still their best showing since 1974, and will give them a comfortable 32-34 seat majority.

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Cory
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The AP has projected Sinema as the new Democratic Senator from Arizona after beating McSally. Trump is going to crap himself. Especially if they do not take Florida.

[ 11-12-2018, 05:54 PM: Message edited by: Cory ]

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Crimson Mask from FL
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Arizona is official. Cue Baby Donnie Twitter Tantrum in 10... 9...

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Cory
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That is what....46-51 with two independents and 2 now outstanding, one being Florida?
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Cory
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quote:
Originally posted by Crimson Mask from FL:
Arizona is official. Cue Baby Donnie Twitter Tantrum in 10... 9...

He has not replied yet. I stress yet.
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Travlr
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quote:
Originally posted by Cory:
That is what....46-51 with two independents and 2 now outstanding, one being Florida?

45+2 to 51, but consider that as 52, as the Mississippi run-off is a given for the GOP.

Florida would give the GOP a firm grip on the Senate and ensure a greater likelihood of judicial appointees getting through. 52 is a might tight, as they learned earlier this year....

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Crimson Mask from FL
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quote:
Originally posted by Cory:
quote:
Originally posted by Crimson Mask from FL:
Arizona is official. Cue Baby Donnie Twitter Tantrum in 10... 9...

He has not replied yet. I stress yet.
Still experiencing Hair Trauma.

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Travlr
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Trump at a campaign stop in Mississippi: "I’m not on the ticket, but I am on the ticket, because this is also a referendum about me. I want you to vote. Pretend I’m on the ballot."

That bit got a lot of airtime, ink and bandwidth.

So, how'd he do?

He personally campaigned for 15 different Senate candidates; 5 won. Florida and Mississippi haven't been decided, so just counting the called races, that's a 39% success rate.

He also personally appeared with 33 GOP House candidates; 16 won. That works out to 48%.

So,bottom line....he didn't do well.....



This may tie into the buzz about Trump being really surly and angry this last week, quite the change from Trump on the stump the week before....
quote:
But his mood apparently has changed as he has taken measure of the electoral backlash that voters delivered Nov. 6. With the certainty that the incoming Democratic House majority will go after his tax returns and investigate his actions, and the likelihood of additional indictments by special counsel Robert Mueller, Trump has retreated into a cocoon of bitterness and resentment.

Behind the scenes, they say, the president has lashed out at several aides, from junior press assistants to senior officials.

Along with all that, being shown in very certain terms that his magic electoral touch had deserted him probably hasn't done anyone any favours in the West Wing....

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The Traveller
a fan since '68....

"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Travlr
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A Florida judge issued an order extending the deadline for recounts in Palm Beach County on state races in question to Nov. 20. That's an additional 5 days beyond the original deadline.

Can hear DeSantis, Scott and Trump growling from here.....

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The Traveller
a fan since '68....

"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Billy Burgess
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quote:
Originally posted by Crimson Mask from FL:
in-alabama-fertilized-eggs-are-now-people

Well, at least it won't lower the mean IQ.

It also means Roy Moore may starting hanging out at fertility clinics rather than the mall.

--------------------
THE TIES THAT BIND - a film for which I created the concept and co-wrote... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODd54l1H6iA

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Travlr
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Numbers aren't official yet, but it looks like turnout this year has reached 49%, and may even get a titch better.

Minnesota -- which has traditionally had strong mid-term turnouts -- topped everyone with ~64% of all eligible voters showing up.

Georgia had 55% turnout, over 20% higher than its 1982-2014 average.

But here's one that makes me go "hmmmmm": Texas' turnout was "only" 46%, but that was 14-points over its 1982-2014 average. The old saw goes, "the better the turnout, the worse for the GOP", right? So now I'm wondering what might have happened if turnout got to 50% or maybe a bit better there. Makes one wonder about the "my vote doesn't count in such a Blue/Red State" nonsense, doesn't it?

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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dthcm
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(D) Harder is declared the winner in the battle for CA-10 seat. Josh Harder beat incumbent (R) Jeff Denham.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/democrat-josh-harder-wins-u-s-house-seat-california-farm-belt-jeff-denham/

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I wish I didn't know now what I didn't know then

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