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Author Topic: If Trump loses every state where his approval numbers are net negative today...
Dragonstone
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This is what the 2020 map would look like...

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No, that's almost certainly not going to be the final map. But if anybody thinks his re-election odds are very strong, here is your reality check.

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1000 Masks But No Jobs
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I don't think he will win, but there is a big difference between approval ratings and automatically losing the state. Polls show him tied with several of the Democratic frontrunners. The only Dem that handily polls ahead of Trump is Biden.

If the Dems go down the road of Warren or Harris, Trump will have more of a chance at re-election than he probably deserves. Most people don't want to "throw their vote away" by voting third-party, so it is still a binary choice, even if both candidates are unappealing.

[ 08-13-2019, 12:07 PM: Message edited by: 1000 Masks But No Jobs ]

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Travlr
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It was over-concentration on the national picture that caused so many problems in 2016; might we be swinging too far the other way?

Won't know until we get there, really.

But here's an important bit to remember looking at that map (and the article very wisely directs your attention to it:
quote:
...[It's] not as though he's on a knife's edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He's underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there's virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump's direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire.
Those approval numbers have been building for months. Yes, there is a reasonable chance that the figures will swing some in Trump's direction before Election Day (and I'd be surprised if they don't, especially in places like Utah and Georgia and Texas), but the question of course is, "will it be enough?"

In places like Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin and Arizona -- and maybe even Florida and North Carolina -- I think the answer is likely to be "no."

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Fighting Camel
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That is the worst kind of polling to use, going by approval numbers. Under that scenario, Reagan was losing handily in 1983...and you see how that worked out.

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Travlr
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Oh yeah, those numbers will be stale in....minutes from now.

But I'd be watching them to see trend lines, and possible avenues of incursions (hey, who would have thought Obama would take Indiana and North Carolins, right?).

"Snapshots in time", right?

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Fighting Camel
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quote:
Originally posted by Travlr:
Oh yeah, those numbers will be stale in....minutes from now.

But I'd be watching them to see trend lines, and possible avenues of incursions (hey, who would have thought Obama would take Indiana and North Carolins, right?).

"Snapshots in time", right?

Yes, but in 2008 there was no incumbent to look at approval ratings on. And yes, many in NC, because I was here, knew 2008 was too close to call between McCain and Obama. Elizabeth Dole was the incumbent Senator and running an awful campaign as was McCrory in the Governor's race. The Dems were going strong down the ticket so no shocker to those of us here when it happened.

But back to polling. Polling with the Democratic field as strung out as it is now is useless in the Presidential election. When you get down to one challenger and one incumbent....then still do state by state polling and never rely on "unfavorability" ratings. People seem to lie on that as much as they did Jesse Helms.

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1000 Masks But No Jobs
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quote:
Originally posted by Fighting Camel:
quote:
Originally posted by Travlr:
Oh yeah, those numbers will be stale in....minutes from now.

But I'd be watching them to see trend lines, and possible avenues of incursions (hey, who would have thought Obama would take Indiana and North Carolins, right?).

"Snapshots in time", right?

Yes, but in 2008 there was no incumbent to look at approval ratings on. And yes, many in NC, because I was here, knew 2008 was too close to call between McCain and Obama. Elizabeth Dole was the incumbent Senator and running an awful campaign as was McCrory in the Governor's race. The Dems were going strong down the ticket so no shocker to those of us here when it happened.

But back to polling. Polling with the Democratic field as strung out as it is now is useless in the Presidential election. When you get down to one challenger and one incumbent....then still do state by state polling and never rely on "unfavorability" ratings. People seem to lie on that as much as they did Jesse Helms.

Said it better than I did. The giant flaw with the thread is that people can disapprove of Trump, yet still vote for him when the alternative is someone Trump has been hammering on for six months and characterizing the Democraticic nominee as wanting to turn the U.S. into Venezuela.

[ 08-15-2019, 01:42 PM: Message edited by: 1000 Masks But No Jobs ]

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Travlr
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Let's not forget how people tend to confuse "approval" and "favourability" ratings. Very different animals; even when Bush's approval was in the 30s, his favourability was over 50%, just as Obama's was around 70%, even with a 45% approval. Confusing one for the other is generally bad juju....


I'm trying to stay away from head-to-head polls right not, unless they're State-based (saw one a week or six back from Ann Selzer in Iowa that Team Trump, even this early, should be concerned about...especially since it's Selzer doing the polling!), and even then, I'm watching for trends, not predictive/probability analysis. Paying much more to the Dem Primary polling, which even this early is starting to show some interesting possibles.

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Fighting Camel
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Jesse Helms was always losing in polling in NC right until the end it seemed. People would always say they were against him then come Election Day they would think about when they had a problem, Uncle Jesse’s Office came through for them.

And who was the best one to talk too and get something done in Helms’ office? MACW’s own Bob Caudle. He handled constituency services even better than his job as an announcer.

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PsychoSem
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Generally speaking it is going to be difficult for any Republican candidate to win with how things were set up. Right now its about 50/50 to me with his re-election. It really depends on who he is running against.

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hardhits79
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If Trump loses Texas or even Arizona you can kiss the baby
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Sac
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quote:
Originally posted by 1000 Masks But No Jobs:
The giant flaw with the thread is that people can disapprove of Trump, yet still vote for him when the alternative is someone Trump has been hammering on for six months and characterizing the Democraticic nominee as wanting to turn the U.S. into Venezuela.

This.

"I don't like everything Trump says, but I can't vote for a Socialist." And any Democrat nominee will be painted as a Socialist this time, I guarantee it.

(I'm actually currently working on an anti-socialism campaign for a super well-known Republican politician whose name I will not mention. My clients are problematic. Sometimes it's hard to sleep at night.)

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K. Fabian McClinch
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The fact is, I think -- although I don't have any data to prove it -- that recently, at least, Republicans or "conservatives" or whatever else you might want to call 'em, have proven themselves more willing to "hold their noses" and vote for a "lesser of two evils" than so-called "progressives" have been. Sure, there are ideological purists on both (all?) sides, but there seem to be more of them on the (so-called) Left.

Not to engage in intellectual-bashing or academia-bashing, but one reason MIGHT be that a lot of progressives are, in fact, intellectuals/academics who are driven by "theory" ("critical" or otherwise) more than pragmatism -- rather go down with a ship than allow it to be steered in a less-than-ideal direction.

Again, just a feeling I have, no polls or surveys or data to substantiate it . . .

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PVM
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quote:
Originally posted by hardhits79:
If Trump loses Texas or even Arizona you can kiss the baby

What baby is that sir?



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Travlr
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quote:
Originally posted by K. Fabian McClinch:
The fact is, I think -- although I don't have any data to prove it -- that recently, at least, Republicans or "conservatives" or whatever else you might want to call 'em, have proven themselves more willing to "hold their noses" and vote for a "lesser of two evils" than so-called "progressives" have been. Sure, there are ideological purists on both (all?) sides, but there seem to be more of them on the (so-called) Left.

Not to engage in intellectual-bashing or academia-bashing, but one reason MIGHT be that a lot of progressives are, in fact, intellectuals/academics who are driven by "theory" ("critical" or otherwise) more than pragmatism -- rather go down with a ship than allow it to be steered in a less-than-ideal direction.

Again, just a feeling I have, no polls or surveys or data to substantiate it . . .

You're not far wrong. "Holding one's nose" is much more likely on the Right side of the room, if only to annoy "The Left". Even if the candidate in question is closer to their PoV on certain issues, it's still "us vs. them", and ideology is the litmus test.

I've been banging my head over "ideology vs pragmatism" in US political analysis for the last five or six years -- essentially since the rise of the TEA Parties -- and it keeps becoming more about ideological purity than getting something that actually works.

Maybe it wouldn't be quite so bad if you guys had more than the two-party system you got going right now, since it better plays to the ideological warfare (internal and external), but by the Gods, gang, it ain't no way to run a government.

Where's FDR when you need him....?

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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