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Author Topic: 9 Republicans are retiring
Cory
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3 from Texas are gone including Hurd. Curious timing on all this since this has happened in the last two weeks. What else could have happened in the last two weeks....

[ 08-01-2019, 06:27 PM: Message edited by: Cory ]

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King Francis
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could it be they actually read the Mueller report and see what the other investigations will bring?

wont say they suddenly got a conscience, but maybe they understand the elections wont be kind?

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When I said that was the most ignorant thing I ever heard, I didn't realize you were still talking.

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Cory
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Well, two of the 4 that voted for the resolution condemning Trump's racist attacks are leaving and that includes their only Black house member. Then when you add two of the 15 women, it does not look great.
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King Francis
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it does from my view [Wink]

but according to the polls that Trump refers to, blacks and women love him for all he has done for them.

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When I said that was the most ignorant thing I ever heard, I didn't realize you were still talking.

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Travlr
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POLITICO's "Playbook" blog is suggesting that there could be another one as early as today.

And First Read is saying they think "the non-Trump wing of the GOP wants out."
quote:
And these Republicans parachuting out of the Republican Party underscore how vulnerable Trump really is, despite the growing economy.The fewer Will Hurd-like members running in 2020 reduces the number of moderate/non-Trump Republicans who would eagerly go to the polls for those representatives – and then still hold their nose and vote for the president.
Normally, retirements like this would come after Congress' August recess and in the weeks leading up to Iowa (and a bit after). This early suggests a number of things (incluidng that it means nothing at all, just a statistical clumping of the timing of them), but to me it's saying that the Republicans aren't very confident of being able to re-take the House next year. Jonathan Bernstein in an Op/Ed piece for Bloomberg points out,
quote:
As for the timing? It’s possible that all the new retirements were long planned. It’s interesting, though, that they come after Robert Mueller’s testimony revived interest in President Trump’s scandals – and, perhaps more relevant, after Trump’s "send her back" rally and his continuing series of bigoted tweets. It’s not crazy to speculate that one or more of these Republicans just didn’t want to campaign for reelection in that kind of atmosphere.
I'm expecting some Democrats to retire this cycle too, but I'd be shocked if any announce this early....

[ 08-02-2019, 06:57 AM: Message edited by: Travlr ]

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Dragonstone
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Worth noting that with Hurd retiring, that means that 50% of all current African-American Republicans in Congress will be gone.
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King Francis
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unreal... and doesnt say much for either party. in some ways worse for mine as they are supposed to be more inclusive

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When I said that was the most ignorant thing I ever heard, I didn't realize you were still talking.

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Dragonstone
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quote:
Originally posted by King Francis:
unreal... and doesnt say much for either party. in some ways worse for mine as they are supposed to be more inclusive

In what universe does 9 Republicans retiring reflect poorly on the Democrats?
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King Francis
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quote:
Originally posted by Dragonstone:
quote:
Originally posted by King Francis:
unreal... and doesnt say much for either party. in some ways worse for mine as they are supposed to be more inclusive

In what universe does 9 Republicans retiring reflect poorly on the Democrats?
because I misread the 50% as being part of both parties instead of Repubs

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When I said that was the most ignorant thing I ever heard, I didn't realize you were still talking.

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The Fake J.D. McKay
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The R party is falling apart at the seams now because of Trumpism and I am saying "I told you so." They are going to likely take historic losses. However, Rep. Conaway in Midland was a shoo-in to win re-election. Hard right district with zero competition. In '18, he won with 80% of the vote. Not so with Olson and Hurd. Will barely scratched out of his last run and, quite frankly, I think he was tired of defending Trumpism against the best interest of not only his constituents, but also his family. Will Hurd is a really great person from what I have heard down here. He is too damned smart to be in Congress, too.
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diamondmd
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Whatever losses the GOP suffers will be at least in part be made up when John Delaney and Tulsi Gabbard switch parties.
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Dragonstone
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quote:
Originally posted by diamondmd:
Whatever losses the GOP suffers will be at least in part be made up when John Delaney and Tulsi Gabbard switch parties.

John Delaney isn't in Congress anymore.
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diamondmd
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But I think he's using this to run for something else. If he does it'll most likely be as a Republican.
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Cory
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Another coming. Rep. Ken Marchant is reportedly going to announce retirement tomorrow
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Travlr
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quote:
Originally posted by Cory:
Another coming. Rep. Ken Marchant is reportedly going to announce retirement tomorrow

And that takes out 4 Texas Republicans.

Marchant won his seat in 2016 with double digits (16.9%), but this past MidTerms, he barely squeeked out a victory (margin of 3.1%)and his CD, TX-24, is considered to be competitive this coming cycle (it currently has a Cook PVI of R+9, but that may not be enough given the current Generic Congressional polling average, which is D+11).

I think a lot of us are going to be paying very close attention to Texas this coming cycle. Many in the biz are thinking Arizona will finally go blue next year, but could Texas actually flip to the Democrats for the first time since 1976? Might we even see the Democrats capture a state-wide Office, there?

Yeah, gonna be watching carefully (as I am for Arizona, North Carolina, and -- tentatively -- Georgia). There's some strange stuff afoot, and we haven't even really gotten to campaign season yet.....

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Travlr
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There are now rumours of an 11th Republican likely to pack it in: Rep. Fred Upton (R, MI-06). 32-year vet of the Congressinal wars.

And while not completely true, there are a lot more moderates -- and folks that have butted heads with Trump -- than otherwise in these retirements.

[ 08-05-2019, 10:43 AM: Message edited by: Travlr ]

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The Traveller
a fan since '68....

"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Dragonstone
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quote:
Originally posted by Travlr:
I think a lot of us are going to be paying very close attention to Texas this coming cycle. Many in the biz are thinking Arizona will finally go blue next year, but could Texas actually flip to the Democrats for the first time since 1976?

I'm extremely doubtful that Texas will flip in 2020, but if it did, the Democrats would probably be looking at their largest electoral college victory since 1964. Pretty sure the nominee would clear 400 EVs if Texas is in the mix.
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Travlr
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quote:
Originally posted by Dragonstone:
quote:
Originally posted by Travlr:
I think a lot of us are going to be paying very close attention to Texas this coming cycle. Many in the biz are thinking Arizona will finally go blue next year, but could Texas actually flip to the Democrats for the first time since 1976?

I'm extremely doubtful that Texas will flip in 2020, but if it did, the Democrats would probably be looking at their largest electoral college victory since 1964. Pretty sure the nominee would clear 400 EVs if Texas is in the mix.
I have very serious doubts of that myself, although the current evidence is showing a slow slide to the blue end of the scale (much like what we watched Colorado do in the 90s). It's very likely to happen sometime in the next 20 years, but the current situation does make one wonder if we aren't perhaps being a trifle conservative in our estimations.....

Makes ya wonder....

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The Traveller
a fan since '68....

"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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