There were 10 candidates who reached the minimum requirement of the backing of 8 Conservative MPs on Tuesday (June 11).
Today the 313 Conservative voted on who they want as their new leader (and thus Prime Minister). The rules were the minimum required was 5% (16 MPs voting for you plus yourself). Anyone who failed was eliminated, if all candidates reach the standard, then the lowest scoring candidate would be eliminated.
The results were:
Michael Gove: 37
Matt Hancock: 20
Mark Harper: 10
Jeremy Hunt: 43
Sajid Javid: 23
Boris Johnson: 114
Andrea Leadsom: 11
Esther McVey: 9
Dominic Raab: 27
Rory Stewart: 19
So McVey, Leadsom and Harper were eliminated. Tuesday there will be another vote, the candidates will be required to have 10% of MPs backing themselves (32 plus themselves). Everybody votes again and can vote for whoever they wish.
It is possible, maybe expected, some candidates may withdraw and publicly support someone else in the hope/agreement of a job in the new cabinet if their man (no women left) wins.
Further votes are possible on Wednesday and Thursday next week, until there are two candidates left. Then all 120,000 odd Conservative members vote on who they wish of the two to be leader. This will lead to a final announcement of a new leader and thus Prime Minister in the week beginning July 22.
Boris as expected comfortable won this round, and in theory even if no other MP chooses to vote for him, if can keep the support he has, he would have enough votes already to be in the final two.
But who will challenge Boris is a lot more interesting. Gove has had 'drug' issues (Drugs and the Conservative Leadership candidates) and Hunt has not really been able to build on that misfortune. But it will probably be one of the two challenging Boris.
The Dark Horse is Rory Stewart, an interesting life story, he has got traction on social media and is polling in the membership second to Boris. But is the least 'Brexity' of all the candidates left.
Second round just happened and Dominic Raab is eliminated. All the other four reached the 33 votes required to stay in.
The initial feeling is that it is good for Stewart. He probably is favourite now to rival Boris when it goes to the membership for a final decision.
There is a BBC debate among the five later on (in two hours time), where Johnson for the first time, will join the debate, having chosen to not attend last Sunday's debate.
And then there is another round tomorrow and if needed up to two more on Thursday before the two 'winners' try to woo the Conservative membership, for their (postal) vote, with the winner crowned as Tory leader and new Prime Minister the week beginning July 22.
Stewart has by far had the most interesting life of all the candidates. A lot of money and connections meant he was able to play the old Victorian Gentleman who went around the 'Empire' on missionary work. He is the sort of man you want at your dinner party, but PM? Well...
Going into yesterday's debate, he was the slight favourite to come second to Boris.
But he had a lackluster showing, momentum seems to be lost, and with a another vote due in a few hours, the feeling is he is struggling. There was a rumour a couple hours back he was negotiating with Micheal Gove to join up with him.
So Stewart can come to my dinner party , as he is out.
The other four comeback tomorrow for possibly two more votes, although already it is thought Javid may pull out and back either Gove or Hunt, which could then decide who is going to challenge Boris in the membership vote.
So Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt will contest the campaign for the new Tory leader and Prime Minister, that will be decided by the postal votes of the Tory membership. The result will be announced the week beginning July 22.
For better or worse, Boris Johnson is going to be next PM. I looked at the bookies odds and the best you can get on him is 33-1 on. Worst odds you can get on Jeremy Hunt is 12-1. Bookmakers don't often get things that wrong, and politics is more easily predicted than sports.
Not disagreeing but they got Trump wrong and I think they got Brexit wrong. It's rare, as you say, but it happens. I don't know anything about Hunt (along with most people I have Brexit fatigue) but he can't be worse than Johnson.
quote:Originally posted by King Francis: is it easier to get him outa office than here?
If you win a vote of no confidence in Parliament, Johnson would have two weeks to regain the confidence or his government would fall and another formed or my likely, there would be a general election.
-------------------- The Traveller a fan since '68....
"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."
The problem for me is that I believe he is going override parliament and leave the EU with no deal (with the EU) in place. He could do this if he also called an election.
The biggest of many big problems would be need to have barriers back on the Northern Irish/Republic of Ireland border. This would break an international agreement and could easily be the spark that lights up The Troubles again.