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Author Topic: Election Day Thread, 2018
King Francis
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why try to convince them with facts? let them continue doing their thing while believing that 50%+ are with them.

need a fiddle?

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When I said that was the most ignorant thing I ever heard, I didn't realize you were still talking.

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SHOOTER
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quote:
Originally posted by Travlr:
quote:
Originally posted by SHOOTER:
I guess it really wasn't much of a blue wave.

Oh really?

Democratic candidates for the House will receive almost as many votes this year as the 63 million that President Trump received in 2016.

That sounds like a wave to me.

As does the fact that the Democrats got more votes than the GOP got in either 2010 or 2014.

You keep right on thinking it wasn't a wave election, Little Fascisti; after all, you have a long LONG record of not being able to accept simple facts. The rest of the world -- including your "Dear Leader" -- knows better.

Regardless of the numbers of votes Democrats got, the fact remains that Trump didn't lose nearly as many seats as Clinton and Obama did in their 1st mid terms and picked up a few
Senate seats.

[ 11-22-2018, 06:56 AM: Message edited by: SHOOTER ]

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Travlr
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quote:
Originally posted by SHOOTER:
quote:
Originally posted by Travlr:
quote:
Originally posted by SHOOTER:
I guess it really wasn't much of a blue wave.

Oh really?

Democratic candidates for the House will receive almost as many votes this year as the 63 million that President Trump received in 2016.

That sounds like a wave to me.

As does the fact that the Democrats got more votes than the GOP got in either 2010 or 2014.

You keep right on thinking it wasn't a wave election, Little Fascisti; after all, you have a long LONG record of not being able to accept simple facts. The rest of the world -- including your "Dear Leader" -- knows better.

Regardless of the numbers of votes Democrats got, the fact remains that Trump didn't lose nearly as many seats as Clinton and Obama did in their 1st mid terms and picked up a few
Senate seats.

The power of the 2011 gerrymandering, which was supposed to ensure a "permanent Republican Majority in the House"....which the Democrats still kicked the sh*t out of.

As for the Senate....you do realize that it is a zero-sum game really? The numbers are right back to where they were January 2017. A return to the status quo ante isn't exactly something to crow about. Especially after your Dear Leader went on and on about all the seats Republicans were going to claim in the Senate (and the House, for that matter, where a few State GOP Parties were not only trounced, but rendered effectively irrelevant, like Michigan and California).

And that's without getting into the State level races where the GOP was sent packing in numerous cases. And it's those races that Trump and the GOP should be most concerned about, since -- if the Dems can do it again in 2020 -- it's going to be their turn to scream about redistricting.....



...but you just keep on whistling past the graveyard, 'kay.....?

[ 11-22-2018, 09:16 AM: Message edited by: Travlr ]

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The Traveller
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Travlr
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With last night's run-off in Mississippi, that leaves us with just one last race to be decided, CA-21, where Democrat TJ Cox has grabbed the lead. And given that Cox has made up a 7000+ vote margin since election night, the general feeling is that CA-21 will be the 7th pickup for the Dems in California, and the 40th pickup overall for the House.



Last night's run-off in Mississippi wasn't really in doubt, although early returns implied Espy might just pull it off anyway. He didn't, but it was another example of the Democrats overperforming in a deeply Red State. It was an 8-point margin for Hyde-Smith, in a State that went for Trump by 18-points, and elected Thad Cochran to the Senate in 2014 by 22-points. Given the lop-sided voter registration numbers for the GOP in the State, that Espy ended up with 46% of the vote had to come as a surprise to many in both campaigns.

As First Read notes,
quote:
Indeed, Espy’s 10-point overperformance from the 2016 presidential results is close to the average of Democrats’ showing in the eight other major special elections of the 2018 cycle – from GA-6 to the Roy Moore vs. Doug Jones Senate race in Alabama.
Nathan Gonzales at Inside Elections (formerly The Rothenberg Political Report) put it very succinctly: "Republicans were fortunate that most of them took place in GOP-friendly territory or they would have lost more of them."



And with that, we can probably get started on 2020 election expectations (why not, all the Pols already are, right?)

Oy.....

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Crimson Mask from FL
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quote:
Originally posted by Travlr:

Last night's run-off in Mississippi wasn't really in doubt, although early returns implied Espy might just pull it off anyway. He didn't, but it was another example of the Democrats overperforming in a deeply Red State. It was an 8-point margin for Hyde-Smith

Takes a real moral defective to gloat over winning with that miserable b*tch.

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So long from the Sunshine State!

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Crimson Mask from FL
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 -

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So long from the Sunshine State!

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Travlr
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And it's official: CA-21 goes to Democrat TJ Cox, giving the Democrats a net 40-seat gain in the House.

And while the House results were getting most of the press, given how some of them dragged out for 2- and 3-weeks, there's also a lot of story about the Senate, too.

Nathan Gonzales, writing for Roll Call today summed it up pretty well with his "All that for one seat?"
quote:
After two years of fighting, spending and campaigning, and one party being handed a very favorable map, the U.S. Senate will be one seat different at the beginning of the 116th Congress than it was at the beginning of the 115th Congress. Republicans gained a net of two Senate seats in the November elections, but they lost the special election in Alabama last December. So the net change is minimal. The GOP majority shifted from 52-48 in January 2017 to 53-47 in January 2019.
And if you think about it, that really was a whole lot of "sound and fury" that, in the end, may have signified a bit more than just "nothing", but the end result really wasn't what the GOP was hoping for, either. Especially since 2020 has the reverse situation of this cycle happening, with the GOP now having to play a lot more defense and having fewer opportunities for flipping seats. Even now, we're starting to hear about plans for Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina (as well as for Alabama and Michigan, where Democrat Senators will be in somewhat unfavourable territory).


And a couple of others short notes to end the season:

- House Democrats Left with $18 Million In Debt

- Democrats Pick Rep. Hakeem Jeffries as Caucus Chair

- (and this just in as I was writing this) North Carolina Won’t Certify NC-09 Race Result. And this is unusual because it was a Republican that appears to have won that race....

[ 11-28-2018, 06:59 PM: Message edited by: Travlr ]

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The Traveller
a fan since '68....

"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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sam the lion from WA
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quote:
Originally posted by Crimson Mask from FL:
 -

But they get to keep their guns, control a women's reproductive system, and say Merry Christmas- Murka!!!

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The magic, that is on those tapes, you don't own THAT!!

Reid Rothchild

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Travlr
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Another interesting tidbit about turnout this cycle: Historic Turnout Probably Helped Republicans More;
quote:
As bad as this outcome was for Republicans, it could’ve been worse: there’s strong evidence November’s universally high, historic midterm turnout actually aided Republicans more than Democrats. For example, on November 6, Rep. Troy Balderson (R-OH) received about 68,000 more votes than he did in the August 7 special election, while Danny O’Connor (D) received just 56,000 more.

Nationwide, there were 23 Republicans who won their House races by less than five points. Had the Trump base not woken up after the Kavanaugh fight, Democrats could have easily gained 50 seats.



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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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paulsonj72
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Some news out of North Carolina. The North Carolina Board of Elections has refused to certify the 9th congressional district race and instead will hold an evidentiary hearing on alleged voter irregularities in the race. The Republican candidate has a little over a 900 vote lead when all ballots were counted.

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article222263905.html

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PCmor
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The Associated Press now has withdrawn its call of the North Carolina House race that's in dispute.

[ 12-01-2018, 04:09 AM: Message edited by: PCmor ]

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diamondmd
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The Georgia GOP continue to try to supress votes while running ads saying they will "stop voter fraud".

There is a runoff for Secretary of State between Republican Brad Raffensberger (a tax cheat like tRump) and Democrat John Barrow. Raffensberger has been running fear ads about "illegals" voting, yada yada yada...

The runoff election is on Tuesday December 4. 65 counties didn't mail out absentee ballots until this week although the runoff has been known since November 17. I got mine on Saturday afternoon. With a Sunday in between the earliest I can mail it back is Monday afternoon. It would have to be in by 7PM Tuesday in order to be counted.

It took a lawsuit being filed to get the current SoS (and Governor-elect) Brian Kemp to agree to extend the deadline for absentee ballots.

Since absentee ballots are automatically sent to those who voted in the November 6 election by absentee ballots, it makes no sense that they held off sending them for two weeks. I'd love to know how many of those delayed were those of registered Democrats or those who voted for a Democrat on November 6.

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http://www.gccwhistory.com/

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Travlr
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And the story out of North Carolina just keeps getting worse and worse.

Besides the North Carolina Elections Board Chairman resigning -- a Democrat, he said that "he did not want his partisan views to undermine a widening investigation" -- the Raleigh News & Observer reports that the data on mail-in ballots from NC-09 are showing some pretty wild problems. For example, some 24% of the requested mail-in ballots were un-returned across the CD. In Robeson County, 64% of mail-in ballots requested did not make it back to elections officials. In Bladen County, the figure was 40%.

The problem there being that un-returned ballots are disproportionately associated with minority voters. More than 40% of the ballots requested by African Americans and more than 60% of those requested by American Indians did not make it back to elections officials.

For whites? Just 17% failed to get collected.

This is the sort of thing that the Voting Rights Act -- before a certain political party gutted it -- was designed to prevent.

But it's also the sort of thing that is going to have the FBI and US Marshals crawling all over that CD with electron microscopes and blood in their eye.....

[ 12-02-2018, 04:47 PM: Message edited by: Travlr ]

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Travlr
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FIveThirtyEight.com takes a deeper look at the NC-09 situation, and finds that the absentee ballot problem there may go back to 2016. And it's just two counties in the CD, but mostly Bladen county...
quote:
It turns out that the data irregularities in Bladen County extend to past elections, too. The 9th District saw a contentious and razor-close Republican primary in May 2018, when Harris ousted incumbent Rep. Robert Pittenger by 828 votes. Bladen accounted for 56 percent of the absentee-by-mail ballots (456 of 811) cast in that primary despite being home to just 6 percent of those who voted — and Harris won 437 of those absentee-by-mail votes to Pittenger’s 17, a massive gap nowhere near either the absentee-by-mail results in other counties or the other results in Bladen. And in the 9th District’s 2016 Republican primary, 22 percent of the race’s absentee-by-mail ballots were cast in Bladen County. That time, they went disproportionately to Pittenger challenger Todd Johnson — he won a whopping 221 of Bladen’s 226 absentee-by-mail votes.
Empahsis their's.

Now, as they point out, this doesn't necessarily mean that there is voter fraud going on; true voter fraud, remember, is quite rare. But they also note that "given the irregularities in absentee-by-mail votes in Robeson and Bladen counties, we should take seriously the possibility that voter fraud occurred here."

This could end up being the not only the final story of the 2018 Midterms, but THE story of it.

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Travlr
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Some more information has come to light, thanks to WSOC-TV. They discovered what "appears to be a targeted effort to illegally pick up ballots", and apparently even the people picking them up weren't certain that the ballots even made it to the elections board.

Furthermore, the station "found the same people signing as witnesses for the people voting, which is very rare."


I don't see this one ending well. I'm expecting a new election to be declared and a LOT of interested federal parties watching over the proceedings.....

[ 12-03-2018, 07:46 PM: Message edited by: Travlr ]

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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diamondmd
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Here's proof that them colored people is stealing the elections from the Republicans. This is why we need to ban non-whites from voting. [Roll Eyes]

web page

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http://www.gccwhistory.com/

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Travlr
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Via The Hill: Over a thousand absentee ballots possibly destroyed in controversial North Carolina House race.

quote:
Over a thousand absentee ballots from likely Democratic voters may have been destroyed in the race for North Carolina's 9th Congressional District last month as allegations of fraud on behalf of the Republican candidate mount.

“You’re looking at several thousand, possibly 2,000 absentee ballot requests from this most recent election. About 40 percent of those, it appears, at this point may not have been returned,” Wake County District Attorney Lorrin Freeman told CNN.

The report comes after Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), the vice ranking member on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, called for an emergency hearing regarding allegations of voter fraud.

Several voters have come forward since Election Day with claims that their uncompleted absentee ballots were illegally collected, and it remains unclear if their votes were counted. One woman on Monday claimed to have been paid by a Republican operative to collect ballots.

Someone had to have organized this, and if they were smart, they'd be running to a country that doesn't have an extradition agreement with the US.

And it's increasingly looking like the House will not seat the current "winner" of the election, Mark Harris, come January.

This is gonna take a while....

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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diamondmd
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Crickets on this from the resident snowflakes as well. Guess they feel picked on.

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http://www.gccwhistory.com/

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Cory
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NC-9 is going to a new election. The Republican candidate was"ill" at the thought of all the ballot fraud going on, even though it was his party that did it.
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Crimson Mask from FL
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https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/iraq-offers-to-help-establish-democracy-in-north-carolina

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So long from the Sunshine State!

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jjenginer
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If this is true hope for a LONG prison sentence for all involved: direct attack on our democracy

But sadly given the current GOP beliefs it was ok because they were minorities, liberals, poor, whatever. May have voted for someone who had dangerous ideas like adequate affordable access to health care, or have the 1% contribute a fair share of taxes, or decent school to send kids too

[ 12-06-2018, 01:02 PM: Message edited by: jjenginer ]

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King Francis
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The GOP was right all along, there is voter fraud being committed.

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When I said that was the most ignorant thing I ever heard, I didn't realize you were still talking.

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Crimson Mask from FL
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Well they're the ones who shoulda known.

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So long from the Sunshine State!

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Fighting Camel
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Knowing most of the players involved, this is not a party corruption, this is a county corruption that has been going on for decades. Best article I’ve seen on it:

https://buff.ly/2B8PQFM

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"A girl's legs are her best friend...but even the best of friends must part"---Redd Foxx

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Travlr
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Camel, I find it of interest that the reporter didn't really point any fingers at specific people above and beyond those already mentioned in the national stories, even though he hammers home (repeatedly) that it's a local, community rivalry. But the ringleaders...er... Party leaders of the last decade don't really get mentioned at all.

Strange that....

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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jjenginer
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Thanks, great article that shows problems are deeper than they appear and not just one person or party
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Fighting Camel
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quote:
Originally posted by Travlr:
Camel, I find it of interest that the reporter didn't really point any fingers at specific people above and beyond those already mentioned in the national stories, even though he hammers home (repeatedly) that it's a local, community rivalry. But the ringleaders...er... Party leaders of the last decade don't really get mentioned at all.

Strange that....

It is not a party leadership issue. It is just campaign managers who will use any means necessary and goes back as far as the 70s. I lived in Bladen County from 1993-2000. I would not accept any candidate of any party as a client from Bladen, Columbus, or Robeson County. Still don’t to this day. Most corrupt area ever, whether it is a Democrati. primary or a General Election. I told one of the people at Red Dome Group not to get involved or they would have the biggest mess of their lives.

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"A girl's legs are her best friend...but even the best of friends must part"---Redd Foxx

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Travlr
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When I Said North Carolina Wasn’t a Democracy, People Called Me Crazy

Apparently people aren't calling Prof. Andrew Reynolds that anymore:

quote:
In December 2016, I wrote a column for the Raleigh News & Observer stating that North Carolina could no longer be classified as a democracy. It went viral and global. Much wailing and gnashing of teeth ensued. The majority of feedback was positive, but in some quarters, I was described as a queer-communist-anti-American, and received scores of visceral email and voice messages to that effect and worse. Campus security were concerned about the specificity of some of the death threats.

The column was based on an analysis of the crumbling machinery of democracy in my state, drawing on my expertise as a professor of comparative politics at the University of North Carolina. I noted that a neutral expert scoring of North Carolina’s electoral integrity had placed the state on a par with pseudo-democracies such as Cuba, Indonesia and Sierra Leone. Partisan gerrymandering and targeted voter suppression drove the score lower. Combined with that, the General Assembly had targeted the LGBTQ community for discrimination (you may remember the push to force transgender people to use the restroom for the sex listed on their birth certificate), and Republicans had sought to curtail executive powers after losing the governorship in the 2016 elections.

I argued then that as a state, we needed to “claw our way slowly toward democratic integrity … [and] address the institutional failures which have cost us our democratic ranking—districting, equal access to the vote and the abuse of legislative power.”

Two years later, the quality of democracy has declined further, and the decaying system has created a monster.

And as he notes, what we've seen this past couple of weeks in Wisconsin and Michigan, they were doing in NC 2 years ago. Again, when a Democrat became Governor (kind of a pattern emerging, eh?)

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The Traveller
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"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."

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Fighting Camel
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quote:
Originally posted by Travlr:
When I Said North Carolina Wasn’t a Democracy, People Called Me Crazy

Apparently people aren't calling Prof. Andrew Reynolds that anymore:

quote:
In December 2016, I wrote a column for the Raleigh News & Observer stating that North Carolina could no longer be classified as a democracy. It went viral and global. Much wailing and gnashing of teeth ensued. The majority of feedback was positive, but in some quarters, I was described as a queer-communist-anti-American, and received scores of visceral email and voice messages to that effect and worse. Campus security were concerned about the specificity of some of the death threats.

The column was based on an analysis of the crumbling machinery of democracy in my state, drawing on my expertise as a professor of comparative politics at the University of North Carolina. I noted that a neutral expert scoring of North Carolina’s electoral integrity had placed the state on a par with pseudo-democracies such as Cuba, Indonesia and Sierra Leone. Partisan gerrymandering and targeted voter suppression drove the score lower. Combined with that, the General Assembly had targeted the LGBTQ community for discrimination (you may remember the push to force transgender people to use the restroom for the sex listed on their birth certificate), and Republicans had sought to curtail executive powers after losing the governorship in the 2016 elections.

I argued then that as a state, we needed to “claw our way slowly toward democratic integrity … [and] address the institutional failures which have cost us our democratic ranking—districting, equal access to the vote and the abuse of legislative power.”

Two years later, the quality of democracy has declined further, and the decaying system has created a monster.

And as he notes, what we've seen this past couple of weeks in Wisconsin and Michigan, they were doing in NC 2 years ago. Again, when a Democrat became Governor (kind of a pattern emerging, eh?)
ALEC Playbook 101

[ 12-11-2018, 07:26 PM: Message edited by: Fighting Camel ]

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"A girl's legs are her best friend...but even the best of friends must part"---Redd Foxx

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