Some people really seem to be of the opinion that Reps vs Dems is nothing more than a sports rivalry with the outcome being only important for bragging rights, but not for any real life consequences. At least there is no other way I can explain it.
-------------------- "I have decided to be happy because it is good for my health." (Voltaire)
quote:Originally posted by Dirko: Some people really seem to be of the opinion that Reps vs Dems is nothing more than a sports rivalry with the outcome being only important for bragging rights, but not for any real life consequences. At least there is no other way I can explain it.
Yes, but also no, depending on the vantage point. Chronologically, yeah. In how the current Administration is reacting to it, yeah. But in the "court of public opinion", not so much....
Prof. Charles Franklin (Director of the Marquette Law School Poll, and Prof Emeritus UW-Madison), took a look at Nixon's polling and discovered a few rather intriguing things.
First, during his first term, he regularly held a 50%+ job approval rating. And held (by today's standards) a shockingly high approval by the Dems, hovering around 40% And after a burst of approval in 1972 -- trip to China, re-election, Paris Peace Accords -- his approval drops through the floor in 1973. Over the 9 months from Feb73, he lost over 4-points a month to level off at 30%....from a high of 67%. It made Bush's approval drop in 2005 look like a nice, leisurely slide.
But here's the kicker: After that drop, his approval rating stayed remarkably stable right up to his resignation. By the time of the "Saturday Night Massacre", the results were already in and those who were going to be for or against had already decided where they stood. And that changed only very very slightly to the point where Nixon left Office.
Let's look at that point again (quoting PRof. Franklin): "The shocking Saturday Night Massacre, Nixon cited as an 'unindicted co-conspirator', the release of tape transcripts that introduced 'expletive deleted' to the lexicon barely moved opinion."
Note that even at Nixon's worst period, Republican respondents to polls were still slightly over 50% in favour of him. Right up to the end. His approval did drop with Republican voters after he resigned, but only afterward, which has some strange symmetry with approval rates of the ACA before and after Trump.
And this beggars comparisons to Trump's approval ratings today WRT the entire Russia investigation, and is the point that Prof. Franklin I think is pointing at: The decisions of the public about where they stand with the question have pretty much been decided. We might see a +/-5% variation in Trump's approval ratings from his 40% aggregate average, but that probably won't be tied to Mueller's probe much, if at all. Until, probably, the final result of the investigation as a whole, which won't be finalized for at least another year, and very possibly into the 2020 campaign cycle.
Then we'll see some changes. Probably.
((Note: Much like how we've seen approval for "Obamacare" rise into a majority position since Trump took office and started trying to dismantle it -- primarily by those who disliked it originally because it didn't go far enough for them -- Nixon's approval dropping below 50% after his resignation probably was due to at least a few Republicans upset that he quit instead of staying the course as much as the adoption of the first Article of Impeachment did.))
-------------------- The Traveller a fan since '68....
"Reputation is what others think about you. Honor is what you know about yourself. The friction tends to arise when the two are not the same.... Guard your honor; let your reputation fall where it may."